Sequel to this piece I wrote where I listed Lagos, Kano and Kaduna as the swing states in tomorrow’s election, an explanation of the terms ‘swing state’ and ‘battleground states’ is important as my use of them is a little bit different from mainstream political speak. A ‘swing state’ for me are those states that are very crucial to the victory of either candidate – lose all three and forget winning the elections. ‘Battleground states’ are those states where both parties have a chance to win, despite popular opinion that perhaps they are locked down. Swing states rank higher than battleground states in the hierarchy of political operatives and are often not given enough attention but in most cases as I will show, winning them can offset the victory of the opponent in all swing states! Thus we find that a decisive victory in Lagos, Kaduna and Kano can be offset by decisive victories in Borno, Imo, Rivers, Jigawa and Sokoto.
The idea of a battleground comes from Sun Tzu’s Art of War where he says “Next is the terrain. It can be distant or near. It can be difficult or easy. It can be open or narrow. It also determines your life or death”. Forcing the opponent to concentrate his resources on defending his territory is a valuable tactic as it opens him up in another territory.
Borno is a traditionally conservative state. Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 could only pull 207,075 votes here while Muhammadu Buhari swept it with 909,763. This may lead to an assumption by pundits that the state will go with Buhari again or by political operatives of APC to think that the state is safely in their kitty or by PDP political operatives to think that the state is locked out to them. For me, I like to look at the bigger picture: ANPP’s Shekarau won over 37,000 votes here in 2011 with the backing of Ali Modu Sheriff on a platform sustained only by few northern leaders. In 2015 with the backing of the Federal Government, an axe to grind with APC/Buhari and a President who has demonstrated faith in him despite the Boko Haram allegations and the Chadian fiasco, Sheriff will pull crucial votes here for PDP. Remember also that the Christian community in this state have a feeling of being abandoned to the whims of Boko Haram by the governor, especially in Chibok. The drawback is that Governor Shettima seems to have mapped out the strategy of using IDP camps to retain the voters. Buhari will win this state but PDP will get crucial votes here again as it did in 2011.
Imo is a safe ground for PDP by all indications but a battleground for APC if Governor Rochas Okorocha and his men keep faith with Buhari. With a paltry 7,591 votes here in 2011 to Jonathan’s 1.3m votes, the state looks locked down for PDP but with an Okorocha desperate to consolidate his hold on Imo state and prove himself the leader of the Igbos, APC must claim as many votes here as possible. Interestingly, this is the state that gave both Buhari and Ribadu their highest votes from the Southeast in 2011. Ribadu in fact had almost 15,000 votes which is higher than all the votes he got from all the other Southeastern states. There is something here for APC to fight for.
Rivers will go with PDP and Jonathan but if APC pushes hard enough, they can pull enough votes here to wreck the bloc Southsouth votes for Goodluck Jonathan. This really should be the general strategy of APC in the southsouth: pick as many votes as possible by concentrating on fringe groups just outside the mainstream who may feel neglected. Rotimi Amaechi unfortunately relies on mainstream machinery and is up against Dame Patience Jonathan, Nyesom Wike and almost all the bigwigs Duncan Mighty listed in his ‘PortHarcourt First Son’ hit. Goodluck Jonathan won 1.8m votes here in 2011 and may repeat same feat. If Amaechi would concentrate on communities that can deliver about 400,000 to 500,000 votes for Buhari, an upset would have been caused as it swells Buhari’s total figures. I don’t see this happening though; Amaechi is more of a showman than a strategist. The Achilles Heel of many politicians in Nigeria is his major flaw: they all assume that people can be bought. Almost all but Oshiomhole is different: he spends surely but he also instills strong belief in those around him that his cause is just. Interestingly, Edo may go with Jonathan but still give enough votes to Buhari to cause a dent in Jonathan’s bloc South-South votes. If the same feat were repeated in Delta state where the voting numbers are also quite high, it would wreck Jonathan’s reelection plans but it is not something the APC thought of before now.
Those who have called Jigawa for Buhari have grossly underestimated the political behemoth called PDP, just like they did when they assumed Gov. Sule Lamido would defect to APC. Sule Lamido is a founding father of PDP, one of the original G-9 that became G-14 that became G-38 that became PDP. Sule Lamido is a product of Mallam Aminu Kano’s school of politics, a marginal contemporary of Abubakar Rimi whom he abandoned when Rimi took the battle to Obasanjo in 2003. Lamido is a core federalist who feels equally at ease with non-northerners as with northerners. Lamido’s loyalty to Federal power is oft underestimated by pundits.
[pull_quote_center]“If Lamido is so loyal and all that Demola, why didn’t he deliver Jigawa for Jonathan in 2011?” [/pull_quote_center]
First, let’s look at the numbers: Jonathan won 419,502 votes here in 2011 to Buhari’s 663,994 votes which is 37% of the votes in Jigawa to 59% for Buhari. This is no mean feat, considering that Jigawa was carved out from Kano and Kano went all out against Jonathan in 2011. Remember also that in 2011, there was more noise in the north than in 2015 about power returning to the north. This time around, some elite and core conservative northerners feel that Goodluck Jonathan should be allowed to complete his second term in four years than risk a tepid Buhari alliance with Tinubu for eight years. Sule Lamido is one name that has been bandied as a likely candidate come 2015. I expect Jigawa to be close. I should in fact say PDP will win Jigawa but the fear of being wrong holds me back.
Sokoto is the last battleground state in my opinion and there is a story to it which I got interested in a while back when studying the pattern of tribunally imposed governors under the platform of ACN:
Governor Attahiru Bafarawa governed Sokoto for eight straight years before leaving ANPP to form his own party (DPP) on which platform he contested the presidential elections in 2007. His gubernatorial candidate in DPP was Maigari Dingyadi while the PDP fielded Magatakarda Wammako. Muhktar Shagari had won the PDP gubernatorial ticket in 2007 but it was taken from him and given to the newly defected Wammako while Shagari was asked to run as his deputy. All of them had been in ANPP together (except Shagari) and the bitterness of that election led to a tribunal matter to determine issues like multiple nomination of Wammako, his lack of proper membership of PDP and lack of a valid running mate. A rerun was slated, Wammako won. But Bafarawa had a friend who had a friend. His friend was Bola Tinubu and he had another friend called Justice Ayo Salami. Tinubu was then looking to form a north-west alliance so Bafarawa had no compulsions collapsing DPP into the then ACN if his man Dignyadi could obtain a tribunal judgement like Mimiko, Aregbesola, Fayemi and Oshiomhole had all done in that era, courtesy their closeness to Bola Tinubu. Dingyadi’s opinion was that Wammako should not have been allowed to participate in the re-run election since he was not yet a member of PDP as at the time of the first election. As the case dragged on and Wammako saw the handwriting on the wall, he cried to Abuja and took his case to the Supreme Court based on a technicality. It was decided in his favour. Bafarawa went ahead to join Tinubu’s ACN.
When Wammako left PDP and joined forces with Tinubu, he was given sole powers over the APC Sokoto machinery to the angst of Bafarawa and his supporters who had been with Tinubu since the days of ACN. They all went to PDP and this is where it gets interesting: Mukhtar Shagari, Attahiru Bafarawa and Maigari Dingyadi are all PDP members and supporting Goodluck Jonathan who won 309,057 votes to Buhari’s 540,769 votes representing 35% of the votes cast in 2011. Add to this the fact that Shehu Shagari whom Muhammadu Buhari removed from power is still alive at 90 and Sambo Dasuki, the powerful NSA who first hinted of elections postponement also hails from Sokoto and you may as well conclude with me that Jonathan may win this state.
All to be seen in twenty-four hours or so.
Demola Rewaju is a super blogger and a writer who manages Demola Rewaju Daily.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
