UYO, Nigeria — The Super Eagles of Nigeria will enter the final day of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers with a faint but tangible hope of securing an automatic ticket — a prospect that only weeks ago appeared lost.
After a series of lacklustre performances, including a frustrating draw against South Africa in June, Nigeria’s campaign was revived by an unlikely twist.
In September, FIFA sanctioned South Africa’s Bafana Bafana for fielding an ineligible player in their Friday, March 21, 2025, match against Lesotho, deducting three points and three goals.
The ruling reshaped Group C and breathed new life into Nigeria’s qualification quest.
Now, as the final matches loom, the group stands on a knife-edge.
Benin Republic top the table with 17 points and a +5 goal difference.
South Africa trail with 15 points and +3, while Nigeria sit close behind on 14 points, also with a +3 goal difference.
Rwanda, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe are mathematically out of contention.
Nigeria’s final match will be a high-stakes encounter at home against Benin Republic, while South Africa host Rwanda.
For the Super Eagles to qualify automatically, they must win — and hope that South Africa either draw or lose their match in Johannesburg.
Several scenarios define Nigeria’s fragile route to the top of Group C:
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If Nigeria defeat Benin 1–0, they will finish first on away goals, having scored in their 2–1 loss to the Squirrels earlier in the campaign.
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If Nigeria win 2–1, both sides will be level on points, goals scored, and goals conceded, prompting a disciplinary tiebreaker based on yellow and red cards.
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If Nigeria secure a 2–0 victory, they will top the group outright on goal difference.
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If Nigeria concede more than one goal in a narrow win, such as 3–2 or 4–3, Benin will still advance on away goals.
Even if the Super Eagles fall short of automatic qualification, finishing second could still open the door to the playoffs.
Four of the best second-placed teams across the African qualifiers will progress, though the calculations are complicated by Eritrea’s earlier withdrawal from the campaign.
CAF regulations stipulate that results against the bottom-ranked team in each group will be excluded from the playoff calculations.
In Group C, that team is expected to be Zimbabwe, which could further influence the ranking of second-place finishers.
Nigeria’s 2–1 victory over Lesotho on Friday, October 10, 2025, in Polokwane was a vital lifeline.
Goals from Ademola Lookman and Victor Osimhen reignited faint hopes after a turbulent qualification journey marred by inconsistent performances and administrative missteps.
Meanwhile, Benin’s narrow 1–0 win over Rwanda propelled them to the top of the group, setting up a tense finale.
South Africa’s goalless draw against Zimbabwe added to the intrigue, leaving all three top sides within striking distance of qualification.
As the final whistle approaches in this unpredictable Group C campaign, the permutations are endless, the pressure immense, and the stakes monumental.
For Nigeria, a nation where football remains a unifying passion, the mission is simple but unforgiving — beat Benin convincingly, hope for a stumble from South Africa, and keep the dream of World Cup qualification alive.
