SINGAPORE, Singpore — Germany’s Chief of Defence, General Carsten Breuer, has warned that NATO must be prepared for the possibility of a Russian military assault on its eastern flank within the next four years.
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a high-level defence summit in Singapore, Gen Breuer said Russia is producing military hardware at a pace not seen in decades and could be capable of launching an offensive against NATO Baltic states by 2029—or sooner.
“This is what the analysts are assessing – in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029… If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that’s not earlier than 2029? I would say no, it’s not. So we must be able to fight tonight,” Gen Breuer said.
According to Gen Breuer, Russia is currently producing around 1,500 main battle tanks annually.
While some are deployed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, he said many are being stockpiled or used to reinforce military units facing westward, signalling broader strategic intentions.
The general also cited Russia’s output of 152mm artillery rounds—reportedly four million rounds in 2024 alone—as further evidence of its long-term military build-up.
“There’s an intent and there’s a build-up of the stocks,” he said, pointing to a possible future assault on NATO’s Baltic member states.
Gen Breuer identified the Suwalki Gap—a narrow corridor bordering Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Belarus—as a critical vulnerability in NATO’s eastern flank.
“The Baltic States are really exposed to the Russians,” he said, referencing conversations with Estonian officials who likened their proximity to Russia as being “close to a wildfire” where one can “feel the heat, see the flames and smell the smoke.”
The German military chief underscored the differences in perception of the threat across Europe, warning that states further from Russia’s border may underestimate the urgency.
“In Germany you probably see a little bit of smoke over the horizon and not more,” he said.
He called for a collective ramp-up of defence capabilities across the NATO alliance.
“What we have to do now is really to lean in and to tell everybody, hey, ramp up… because we need it. We need it to be able to defend ourselves and therefore also to build up deterrence.”
Despite concerns over differing political views, particularly from Hungary and Slovakia, Gen Breuer insisted that NATO remains cohesive in the face of Russian aggression.
“I’ve never seen such a unity like it is now,” he said.
He pointed to Finland and Sweden’s accession to the alliance as signs of growing collective resolve.
“All of them understand the threat that is at the moment approaching NATO,” he added.
“The urgency is seen.”
Gen Breuer referenced recent incidents—including sabotage of undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks on European public systems, and drones spotted over critical German infrastructure—as part of Russia’s wider campaign to probe NATO’s defences.
Russia, he said, views the war in Ukraine not as an isolated conflict but as part of a continuum of confrontation with the West.
“They are trying to find ways into our defence lines and it’s testing it,” he warned.
His comments come amid a broader transformation in Germany’s approach to defence.
Once cautious on military spending, Berlin has increasingly aligned with NATO’s push to strengthen capabilities.
Even the traditionally pacifist Green Party recently backed moves to lift limits on defence expenditure.
Still, challenges remain.
European military production lags far behind Russia’s output, and while political rhetoric signals readiness, experts warn it may take years before Europe’s industrial base can meet the scale of the threat.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to reorient its strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific, prompting questions about the long-term depth of its defence commitments to Europe.
As NATO prepares for its upcoming summit in The Hague, where defence budgets and strategy will dominate the agenda, Gen Breuer’s remarks serve as a forceful reminder: the alliance may not have the luxury of time.
