OTTAWA, Canada — In a dramatic electoral reversal, Canada’s Liberal Party has secured victory in the federal election on Monday, April 28, 2025, with newly minted leader Mark Carney leading the party to a likely minority government — and extending its decade-long rule despite earlier polls suggesting a Conservative landslide.
With nearly all ballots counted, the Liberals are projected to win 168 of 343 seats, just shy of the 172 needed for a parliamentary majority.
The opposition Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, are trailing with 144 seats.
The result means the Liberals will continue governing with the support of smaller parties, as they have for the past two terms.
“This is Canada, and we decide what happens here,” Carney said in his victory speech, pointedly addressing growing tensions with Washington.
“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we must never forget the lessons.”
Just four months ago, the Conservatives held a commanding 25-point lead over the Liberals.
Poilievre, a fiery populist, seemed poised to unseat the Liberal government after a decade in power, boosted by public frustration over inflation and housing shortages.
But the dynamics of the campaign shifted dramatically following inflammatory rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, including a threat to annex Canada and steepen trade tariffs.
The Liberal campaign, fronted by Carney, seized on the opportunity to cast the election as a referendum on Canada’s sovereignty in the face of American pressure.
“Even on Monday, Trump told Canadians to ‘elect the man’ who would make Canada the 51st state,” said political analyst Leyland Cecco.
“That seemed to be the final gift Carney needed.”
In a remarkable twist, CBC projects that Poilievre himself has lost his seat — a symbolic blow to the Conservative Party’s future.
Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, stepped into the political arena earlier this year following Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
Though seen as technocratic and lacking retail political flair, Carney’s calm, crisis-tested image appealed to Canadians rattled by instability in U.S.-Canada relations.
He promised pragmatic leadership and cast himself as the adult in the room — a message that resonated as Trump’s shadow loomed large over the campaign.
“This wasn’t a typical campaign,” said David Lametti, a former justice minister. “We were dead and buried in December. Now we are going to form a government.”
While Carney has expressed willingness to meet with Trump to discuss a new trade deal, he has also signalled a tougher stance than his predecessor, suggesting Canada may “wait until the time is right” to renegotiate terms.
“Senior members of his team expect a call with Trump in the next few days,” Cecco reported.
“But there’s also talk about reassessing whether the depth of the U.S. relationship is still in Canada’s best interest.”
Carney has advocated for strengthening trade ties with the United Kingdom and the European Union, and domestically, plans to focus on housing and reducing internal trade barriers to jumpstart the economy.
The result also marks a significant blow to the growing wave of right-wing populism.
Poilievre’s efforts to downplay his perceived ideological closeness to Trump were ultimately overshadowed by the U.S. president’s own interventions.
“This election is a reminder that Trump is as much a recruiter for his opposition as he is for his supporters,” said Canadian political columnist Susan Delacourt.
“And in Canada, that’s what made the difference.”
While the final seat tally remains to be certified, the Liberals’ hold on power — however slim — is likely to have lasting implications, not just for Canada’s domestic politics, but also for its foreign policy alignment in the Trump era.
For now, the Liberals are celebrating a stunning comeback — and a campaign that rewrote the script on what seemed, at the start of 2025, an inevitable Conservative victory.
