Bad, Bad News: Oil Prices To Drop To Between $5 And $15...

Bad, Bad News: Oil Prices To Drop To Between $5 And $15 In 2016 – IMF

By Vanguard on December 25, 2015
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC; World Economic Forum Foundation Board Member is seen during the Session 'The Global Economic Outlook' at the Annual Meeting 2013 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 26, 2013. | WEF/Moritz Hager

The days ahead may just be harder than envisaged as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Thursday, said crude oil prices may slump to as low as $20 per barrel in 2016.

Following the release of the “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Iran” report, the body highlighted that the price of crude oil could drop between $5 and $15 in 2016. Following the release of the “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Iran” report, the body highlighted that the price of crude oil could drop between $5 and $15 in 2016.

According to IMF, the dwindling oil prices would not have overtly negative effect on Iran, whose gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise four to 5.5 percent by 2017.

“Prospects for 2016/17 are brighter, owing to the prospective lifting of economic sanctions. Higher oil production, lower costs for trade and financial transactions, and restored access to foreign assets, are expected to lift real GDP to about 4–5.5 percent next year,” IMF said.

The same cannot be said for Nigeria, whose 2016 budget is benchmarked at an oil price of $38 per barrel for the 2016 fiscal year.

With Nigeria expected to produce 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2016 and sell at $38 per barrel, the country expects to generate $83.6 million per day in 2016 – $30.514 billion in the year 2016.

Going by IMF’s predictions at $20, Nigeria would generate $44 million per day in 2016, amounting to $16.060 billion in the year.

This would mean that Nigeria would get at least 47.4 percent less revenue from oil than what is already projected, consequently adding more pressure to the nation’s need to go borrowing in 2016.

According to President Muhammadu Buhari, oil related revenues are expected to contribute N820 billion to the economy, while the budget deficit which stands at N2.22 trillion would be funded by foreign and domestic loans.

If the N820 billion expected from oil revenues is cut by 47.4 percent – the IMF projected decline in oil prices – the nation’s budgetary deficit would move N388.68 billion to N2.59 trillion.

As at November, Iran, with the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, had 36 million barrels of oil stored in offshore tankers for sale in 2016 – sure to drive oversupply.

This is against the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projections that the global crude oil prices at seven-year low will not continue to fall, as it could swing upwards soon.

The Secretary-General, OPEC, Abdullah al-Badri, made this disclosure at the first OPEC-India Energy dialogue in New Delhi.

It will be recalled that oil prices fell by about two-thirds since mid-2014, with Brent crude on Monday flirting with its lowest level since 2004 at just above $36 a barrel.

According to him, “I’ve been in the oil business all my life. I saw six cycles – I saw very high price, I saw low price, and this is one of them. This will not continue.”

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  1. Better for us, this will make us to look inward at other area of generating revenue, in every adversity and dissapointment there is always a blessings waiting to be harness. May the blessing be

  2. Don’t be expecting any blessings again, as we’ve had enough of this property of God, crude oil. Afterall, how judiciously have we been making use of, all the proceeds from the several years of the sales of crude oil, with our bottomless stomach and insatiability. It’s now time for the Creator and Owner of the crude oil to start enjoying His property, because He actually created all things for His own pleasure! Let all people return to God now, before it’s too late. We can do without oil, God’s creation , but we cannot do without God, the Creator.

  3. Falling natural resource prices may be good news for the consuming countries, but they also will be very bad news for the producing countries where governments may fall because of dramatically increasing poverty. I worry a bit that Communists and religious extremists may take over in several countries.

  4. I don’t how these guys conjured up their scary figures but my Octopus says a price range 40-45 dollars per barrel on the average shall be the regime in 2016. Remember him? The golden Octopus

  5. A clarion call to shift our dependence to our sweat, learn to different between our needs and our wants and to shy away from primitive accumulation.

  6. IMF said oil could drop by $5 to $15 and your title erroneously states drop TO $5 to $15. Please correct your title before people start to panic unnecessarily.

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