Former Chairman of the Governing Council of Michael Imodu National Institute for Labour Studies, Professor Adesegun Ojo, has made an emphatic statement that President Goodluck Jonathan will win in Lagos State when the presiential elections hold on Saturday, March 28, 2015.
Ojo stated that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has won all presidential elections in the state will continue in the same vein, regardless of the fact that the state is currently governed by the opposition All Progressives Congress.
He said: “The question, therefore, is whether the All Progressives Congress will receive 25 per cent of the votes in Lagos. This is critical.
“In the 2011 presidential election, Jonathan/PDP received 1,282,688 while Buhari received 189,983; Ribadu, 427,203 and Shekarau, 8,341. Let us assume that all those who did not vote for Jonathan then will now vote Buhari this time, the expected vote could be 625,527 while Jonathan’s vote remain the same.
“Another scenario of Buhari to win, we will need an increase in the number of voters and probably need more than 100 per cent increase for Buhari to receive more votes than Jonathan and assuming that all those new voters will be voting for Buhari and none voting for Jonathan (while Jonathan voters remain the same). Or, on the contrary, 50 per cent of Jonathan voters decide not to vote for him and all voting Buhari while there is no increase in the number of voters.
“We know this is not happening and there is probability of 10 per cent to 20 per cent change either way. If that is the case, Jonathan should be expected to win in Lagos.”
