Preliminary Statement
on the Gubernatorial Election in Bayelsa State
Presented by Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullah, Chairman, TMG
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) welcomes you all to the public release of its preliminary statement on the conduct of the 2015 Bayelsa
Introduction
On Saturday December 5, 2015, a total of 300 carefully selected, trained and accredited stationary citizen observers were deployed by TMG to observe the 2015 Bayelsa Gubernatorial Election in arandomly selected representative sample of 300 polling units spread across every senatorial district and all eight of the local government areas (LGAs). Thus, TMG observers were in every corner of the state, from the capital of Yenagoa, to Sagbama town, to the most remote riverine areas in Brass and Southern Ijaw.
As communicated to the nation and people of Bayelsa on Thursday December 3, 2015 in the pre-election statement, TMG employed the Quick Count methodology to observe the BayelsaGubernatorial Elections. The Quick Count is an advanced and scientific election observation methodology. It utilizes well-established statistical principles and sophisticated information technologies to provide timely and accurate information on the conduct of voting and counting process throughout Election Day. It is the only election observation methodology that independently verifies official results as announced by national election management bodies such as INEC.
About Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
Permit me, Ladies and Gentlemen, to say a few words about TMG and election observation activities in Nigeria. TMG is Nigeria’s premier citizen observer group. TMG observed the transition from military to democratic rule and has since observed all subsequent national elections. TMG is a coalition of over 400 civil society organizations based in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). TMG is driven by data, for all Nigerians, but beholden to none.
General Context
Ladies and Gentlemen, TMG recognises that Bayelsa state, as an estuary where many communities cannot be accessed by road, presents a challenging terrain to organise an election. These inherent challenges were further compounded on December 5 by the behaviour of political parties whoinstrumentalised
On December 7, 2015 INEC decla
Pre-Election
Elections are more than just Election Day, and TMG has been observing the entire process for the Bayelsa Gubernatorial Election. TMG’s main findings related to the pre-election period include:
4. Early warning signs of violence including arms build-up in identified areas – including Southern Ijaw and Ekeremor – seem not to have been adequately addressed by the security agencies in the lead-up to the election;
5. A seeming lack of synergy between security agencies and INEC may have contributed to the late distribution of election materials to the Registration Area Centres and subsequently to the Polling Units on December 5, 2015.
Preliminary Findings on the Election Day Processes
On December 7, 2015 INEC declared the election in one of Bayelsa’s eight local government areas, Southern Ijaw, to be inconclusive. TMG observers deployed in Southern Ijaw during the election dates largely reported that polling units did not open for election. As a result, TMG will only present its observations from the seven local government areas where INEC has announced results. This is why TMG will not speak to the process in Southern Ijaw or present data from Southern Ijaw at this time.
The following findings are therefore based on reports received from 181 of TMG’s 230 citizen observers who were deployed outside of Southern Ijaw, (i.e. 79%), stationed at a representative random sample of polling units in these seven LGAs. It should be noted that TMG’s observers faced significant challenges deploying and observing throughout the entire day. Six observers located in Yenagoa, Brass, Nembe and Ekeremor reported that they were not permitted to observe. Other observers reported that elections did not take place in their assigned polling units or that they were unable to observe the entire process due to violence or ballot box snatching. Based on the complete reports from our citizen observers, which they sent in via coded text message using mobile phones, TMG finds that, while some elements of the Election Day process were adequate, there were serious shortcomings including:
Setup of Polling Units
Accreditation of Voters
Voting Process
Counting Process
Results Process
Summary
Ladies and gentlemen, TMG highlights again with grave concern persistent challenges in the organisation of credible elections in Bayelsa state. In the seven LGAs where elections did hold on Saturday, December 5, 2015:
The above findings suggest that the gubernatorial election in Bayelsa was characterized by serious irregularities throughout the process, which call into question the credibility of the election. TMG calls on INEC to adhere to its Approved Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of 2015 General Elections to ensure the credibility of the electoral process.
Furthermore, recognizing the challenges posed by the security and political environment in Bayelsa, the TMG Chair wishes to particularly thank the Quick Count observers who persevered in the conduct of their duties despite the difficulties faced.
TMG’s data will be available for all stakeholders and citizens to assess. As we continue to state, Quick Count is:
Driven by data,
Beholden to none,
For all Nigerians.
Thank you and God Bless the people of Bayelsa State in particular and Nigeria in general.
Media Contact: Armsfree Ajanaku
Telephone: +234 8086985104
Email: [email protected]
Appendix
The Quick Count Methodology
The Quick Count is an advanced and scientific election observation methodology that employs well established statistical principles and utilizes sophisticated information technologies. It provides the most timely and accurate information on the conduct of voting and counting. It is the only election observation methodology that independently verifies official results as announced by national election management bodies.
TMG Bayelsa State Election Quick Count
TMG conducted a Quick Count during the Bayelsa State governorship Election heldon Saturday, December 5, 2015. TMG deployed 300 carefully selected, trained and accredited stationary citizen observers to a representative random sample of 300 polling units out of the total of 1,804 in the 8Local Government Areas (LGAs). In addition to the stationary volunteers, TMG also had 14 mobile or roving supervisors who also observed the elections within the LGAs (see Appendix Table 1 for sample distribution).
Appendix Table 1: Comparison of Distribution of All Polling Units with TMG Quick Count Sampled Polling Unit |
|||||
Senatorial Zone |
Local Government Areas (LGA) |
Polling |
Percentage of Polling Units |
Sampled Polling Units |
Percentage of Sampled Polling Unit |
Central |
Kolokuma/Opokuma |
144 |
8.0% |
24 |
8.0% |
Central |
Southern Ijaw |
425 |
23.6% |
70 |
23.6% |
Central |
Yenagoa |
219 |
12.1% |
36 |
12.0% |
East |
Brass |
159 |
8.8% |
27 |
9.0% |
East |
Nembe |
202 |
11.2% |
33 |
11.0% |
East |
Ogbia |
259 |
14.4% |
44 |
14.7% |
West |
Ekeremor |
198 |
11.0% |
33 |
11.0% |
West |
Sagbama |
198 |
11.0% |
33 |
11.0% |
|
Grand Total |
1,804 |
100% |
300 |
100% |
TMG volunteers for the Bayelsa State Governorship election were drawn from every corner of this State and include men and women, youth and elderly, with recourse to the secularity of the Nigerian State as enshrined in the 1999 Constitution. These volunteers observed the entire Election Day processes from setup of the polling units through to the announcement and posting of the official results. During this period, volunteers with the aid of mobile phones sent in real-time reports via coded text message to the TMG’s National Information Centre (NIC) located at the Top Rank Galaxy Hotel, Yenagoa.
TMG’s objective for undertaking the Quick Count exercise, ladies and gentlemen, was to scientifically and independently verify the accuracy of the Bayelsa Governorship election result as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and to confirm whether the official results truly reflect the will of electorates in Bayelsa State.