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Friday, March 29, 2024

Opinion: The Logic And Illogicality Of Election Postponement

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by Tunde Fagbenle

By any measurement Mohammed Sambo Dasuki is not a small fry in President Jonathan’s kitchen cabinet. Indeed, as the National Security Adviser what he says publicly or even privately carries the weight of that office, of the potential security (or insecurity) of the country, and so not to be taken lightly. Thus when the other day, January 22, in far away London the retired colonel “carefully” suggested that Nigeria’s national elections due to hold next month (exactly two weeks from today) be delayed by another month or so, Nigerians did not consider it funny.

The country has been preparing for the elections for the last four years, virtually as soon as the last one was over. And, now so close to February 14, D-Day of the Presidential Election, the first in the set of elections, the campaign tempo and political tempers are high. Everything said and unsaid by all the chief political actors – leaders of the political parties, top members of the Federal Government, and most of all by the INEC boss or his representative – is not to be taken at face value, but to be viewed with suspicion of underlying motives or any underhand play.

Certainly it would be remiss of the NSA not to intervene where and if he considers that the security or stability of the country were otherwise at stake.

Dasuki’s grounds for calling for a postponement is the fear that millions of potential voters could be disenfranchised if the elections went ahead as planned. With few weeks left to the polls, according to him, 30 million permanent voter cards (PVC), i.e. almost half total registered voters, were yet to be collected and without it, the voter could not vote. In the circumstance, the NSA ponders, “what sense does it make to vote three months early?” – giving that though elections hold in February, the new government does not get sworn in till May! But the three months gap allowed by law is not for the fun of it. It takes account of Nigeria’s peculiarity and the proclivity of all political parties for challenging election results won by others.

A few days later, January 27, at a meeting with all registered political parties, INEC announced the latest position. Out of a total 68.8m registered voters, 42.7m (62%) PVC has been “distributed” leaving about 30% outstanding.

Certainly there is some logic in the argument. If 50, 40, 30, even 20 per cent of potential voters are denied their right to vote, by any act of omission or commission of the electoral umpires or authorities, such election cannot be considered fair or wholesome, and the credibility would be suspect. But the operating word is “denied.” The voter cannot be complicit in the process. INEC or anyone cannot be held responsible where and if some people, no matter their percentage, are disinclined to collecting their PVCs where such are readily and easily available.

From a personal experience, I only went for my own PVC a week ago in Ibadan where I voted during the last elections. At that election, I was given a voter slip (temporary voter card – TVC?) that I was lucky to find in an old wallet where I had put it. I went to the INEC office at Agodi, and was directed right at the gate to their office at the NYSC premises around the Governor’s House. I met only a handful of people on similar mission to mine and within a minute or two had someone check my TVC to determine where I was to go for my PVC – which was a desk within the compound of Ikolaba Grammar School, a stone’s throw away. That too was even more pleasant, as I was the only person around in the five minutes it took to locate mine in a huge pile of uncollected PVCs. The experience was pretty easy and smooth, but that may be area specific and not general. And I wonder what it would be like for someone who couldn’t find, or didn’t have, his/her TVC to start with.

Curiously, the ruling party, PDP, are pretty much happy with Sambo Dasuki’s palliative, whilst the leading opposition party, APC, are crying havoc, contending that such postponement would advantage PDP who, in their opinion, has run out of time to halt the APC public-support momentum. And so the question: why would APC be contented with a 20-30% voter-population disenfranchisement rather than ‘suffer’ a delay to the existing election timetable?

Interestingly, from the PVC distribution table provided by INEC at the said meeting, both of the two leading parties, PDP and APC, are almost equally impaired or favoured in their supposed strongholds. Out of about 5m registered voters in Kano, only 52.5% have received their PVC; 47.8% in Oyo; an awful 38% of Lagos’ 5.9m; and a worse 36% in Ogun. More cheerful, Katsina records almost 80%; Sokoto 75%; Gombe 78%; Osun 70%; Jigawa 80%; and Kaduna 87%. Conversely, only 37% of Imo’s 1.8m has received their PVC; 52% of FCT; 51% of Enugu; 62% of Delta; 63% of Bayelsa; 49% of Rivers; and 79% of Akwa Ibom. The other states follow similar distribution pattern, ranging from 51% to 78%.

Many questions arise: 1). Why has it been difficult or impossible for INEC to get all registered voters to obtain their required PVC in over a year? 2). What other measures or contingency plan could INEC adopt, sans PVC, to accommodate all eligible voters without compromising the integrity of the elections? 3). Who or which party stands to gain from the present unwholesome state of PVC distribution? 4). Who or which party stands to gain from any delay? 5). What are the possible negative/legalistic implications of a postponement? 6). Is delay by another 14 to 28 days the only way (and is it a guarantee?) to ensure a reasonable percentage (say, 90%) successful PVC distribution?

From newspaper reports, party representatives were close to exchanging blows at the meeting with INEC when, in violation of the agenda of the meeting, one party leader spoke echoing Dasuki’s recommendation of more time to enable INEC to complete the PVC distribution. As the NSA argues further to INEC, “if in one year you distributed 30 million (out of about 60 million), I don’t see how you will distribute another 30 million in two weeks.”

But, in the present climate of distrust, logic and illogicality are twined and men have lost their reason. And that’s saying it the way it is!

Mr Tunde Fagbenle is a veteran journalist, newspaper columnist and author of ‘Nigeria: This is my country, damn it!

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

 

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