Akin Abayomi, Lagos state commissioner for health, says the state may see up to 39,000 cases of COVID-19 in a worst-case scenario.
Abayomi spoke at a media briefing in Lagos, on Friday, March 27, 2020.
As of Thursday, Nigeria has a total of 65 coronavirus cases with Lagos having the highest number of cases — 44.
Comparing the number of confirmed cases with figures in existence in other parts of the world, he said the state is definitely “doing something right” as it has been able to contain and limit the spread of the disease.
He said with social distancing, the figure could be limited to 13,000 cases.
“Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos,” Abayomi said.
“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further.”
“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasise to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practise social distancing.
“Looking at the same timeframe from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos state is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.
“So, at weeks two and three of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases.
“So, we are doing something right in the state. Then if we continue to do that, we will remain on the lower trajectory.
“It shows we are keeping the curve flat which is allowing us to keep up with the number of cases we have so far.”