MOSCOW, Russia – For nearly a decade, Bashar al-Assad stood as an unyielding symbol of Russia’s influence in the Middle East—a leader whose survival depended on Moscow’s military might and strategic backing.
But in an unexpected and dramatic turn, the Syrian capital of Damascus has fallen, Assad’s regime has crumbled, and the man once seen as a steadfast ally of Russia has reportedly fled to Moscow, where the Russian government has granted them asylum “on humanitarian grounds.”
The events of the past 24 hours mark a seismic shift in the region’s political landscape, unravelling years of Russian investment in Assad’s presidency.
What was once hailed as a cornerstone of President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy ambitions now lies in disarray, raising questions about the Kremlin’s long-term strategy and its ability to maintain its foothold in a volatile Middle East.
The Kremlin’s Syria Gamble
Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015 was a bold move by President Vladimir Putin, designed to reassert Russia as a global power.
By sending thousands of troops, advanced weaponry, and air support to bolster Assad, the Kremlin sought to challenge Western dominance and secure a foothold in the eastern Mediterranean.
The strategy initially appeared successful.
In 2017, Putin visited Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria, declaring “mission accomplished.”
The intervention cemented Assad’s survival, secured long-term leases on strategic military bases in Hmeimim and Tartous, and positioned Russia as a key power broker in the Middle East.
But the dramatic events of the last 24 hours have undermined these achievements.
Damascus Falls, Moscow Reacts
As rebels seized control of Damascus, reports emerged of looting at Assad’s residences. Russian officials scrambled to contain the fallout, putting their military bases in Syria on high alert.
A statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry acknowledged the situation with “extreme concern” and confirmed ongoing talks with opposition forces.
Rebel leaders have reportedly guaranteed the safety of Russian military assets and diplomatic missions in Syria, though the long-term fate of Moscow’s bases remains uncertain.
The naval and air bases in Tartous and Hmeimim were critical to Russia’s strategy, serving as hubs for military contractors and operations across Africa.
Losing access to these facilities would deal a severe blow to Moscow’s influence in the region.
Blame Game in Moscow
Russian state media has already begun deflecting responsibility for Assad’s fall, pointing fingers at the Syrian military.
On Sunday night, a flagship news programme blamed Syrian government troops for surrendering key positions without a fight.
“Positions were given up virtually without resistance,” said anchor Yevgeny Kiselev.
“Fortified areas were surrendered one after another despite government troops being better equipped and outnumbering the attacking side many times over. It’s a mystery!”
The narrative reflects Moscow’s attempt to manage domestic perceptions, emphasising that Russia’s primary focus remains its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine rather than the crisis in Syria.
A Loss of Prestige
Assad’s fall is a significant setback for Moscow, both strategically and symbolically.
Russia invested heavily in keeping the Syrian president in power, using its intervention as a showcase of military might and a statement of geopolitical ambition.
“This is not just about Syria,” said Dmitry Trenin, a Russian foreign policy analyst. “It’s about Russia’s global standing.
The loss of Assad diminishes Moscow’s credibility as a reliable ally and weakens its influence in the Middle East.”
What Comes Next?
The fate of Assad’s regime is uncertain, but his departure marks the end of an era for Syria and a critical juncture for Russia’s role in the region.
For the Kremlin, the priority now will be to secure its military assets and salvage its influence with Syria’s new rulers.
But as Moscow faces growing challenges at home and abroad, the collapse of its Syria project underscores the limits of its power in a rapidly changing world.
As one state TV anchor put it, “Of course, we are not indifferent to what is happening in Syria. But our priority is Russia’s own security.”
The message is clear: For Putin, the focus has shifted back to Ukraine and domestic concerns. But the shadow of Syria’s collapse will loom large over Russia’s global ambitions for years to come.
