[dropcap]E[/dropcap]quating US President Donald Trump to a Christian, and one specially anointed for a so-called divine purpose, as some Nigerian Christians are won’t to do, is indeed laughable. Trump epitomizes, and self-confesses to everything antithetical to Christianity (Christ-like). He once confessed that he had never asked for forgiveness of anyone (evidently, including God), and on anything! But it’s understandable: many Nigerians are simply in search of anything that smacks of heroism, their land having been bereft of any semblance of such for so long!
Now to the second issue. It is almost certain that the US House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump. The bigger and more complex question is whether the Republican-controlled Senate would convict and vote for his removal. My hunch is that it will. Why do I FEEL this way?
First, it is beyond question that what Trump did in his July phone call to Ukraine is an impeachable offense. Secondly, the hole the White House tried to bore into the first whistleblower’s account, to the effect that their deposition was an hearsay, has been blocked by that of the second whistleblower, who was said to be completely in the picture of the July phone call.
Thirdly, more WH folks, including possibly the fiery John Bolton, are coming up to testify – most likely against the President. Recall that as usual with him, Trump tried to mess up the former NSA concerning the latter’s mode of exit from the Administration. I doubt if Bolton would hold back in his testimony, especially vis a vis the intrusive role of presidential counsel Rudy Giuliani in the whole Ukraine saga.
Fourthly, the only thread Trump is holding onto is quite flimsy – that there was no quid pro quo in his call to the President of Ukraine. Now, it’s been demonstrated that constitutionally, you don’t even require a quid pro quo to justify an impeachment.
Fifthly, as the impeachment hearings come into the open, more Americans would be alarmed by the extent their President went to, on these issues. Consequently, the 49% figure of the population currently in support of impeachment would spiral upwards dramatically, to such an extent that the Republicans in the Senate would not be able to completely discountence it.
Sixthly, and perhaps most importantly, the GOP itself, including its caucus in the Senate, would fracture, with not a few members becoming ready to vote that Trump be removed. It would come to a stage they’ll begin to see the whole impeachment as a case of head you win, tail, you don’t lose – afterall if Trump goes, it is a true Republican in the person of VP Mike Pence that would step in; provided he too is not irredeemably rubbished in the upcoming hearings.
Seventhly, I see Trump, in his usually combative manner, begin to give a cold shoulder to VP Pence; and ultimately accusing him of pro-impeachment tendencies, being the potential chief beneficiary of same. This would help to deepen intra-Republican in-fighting that cannot do the President any good.
My eighth point: when you are up against the type of dexterity, experience, leadership, and clarity of mind that Speaker Nancy Pelosi emblematizes, and the clear focus and determination of an Adam Schiff, you better recognise that you are in a very tough arena, and treat it as such. I doubt if Trump has realised this – that the gavel in the hands of Pelosi at this instance is an incredible symbol of compelling authority and power!
The inevitable conclusion is that ongoing impeachment process in the US may turn out to be one thing that the survivalist Donald Trump may not be able to handle as he had always done several others. It may not be just another episodical occurrence in this unusual presidency.
Femi Mimiko, mni, is a professor of political science, a respected educational administrator, and a former vice chancellor of Adekunle Ajasin University, a state-owned university named after a former governor of Ondo State, Nigeria. He tweets from @FemiMimiko.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
