A renowned economist and former Chairman of the asset-management division of the Goldman Sachs Group, Mr. Jim O’Neill has said that the Nigerian economy has the potential to grow between 10 and 12 per cent if the perennial power outage suffered in the country is sorted out. This, he insisted would double the size of the Nigerian economy in six or seven years.
In 2001 the world began talking about the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – as potential powerhouses of the world economy. The term, according to ThisDay, was coined by economist Jim O’Neill, who has now identified the “MINT” countries – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – as emerging economic giants. Here he explains why.
Speaking on a BBC programme titled: “The MINT Countries: Next Economic Giants?” on Monday January 6th 2014, O’Neill revealed that about 170 million Nigerians share the same amount of power that is used by about 1.5 million people in the United Kingdom.
He said: “Almost every business has to generate its own power. The costs are enormous. Sorting out energy policy was seen in both Mexico and Nigeria as a top priority and each country has launched major initiatives this year, which if implemented, will accelerate growth rates significantly,” he added.
Alhaji Aliko Dangote, the CEO of Dangote Group, who was one of the interviewees on the programme said: “Can you imagine, can you believe, that this country has been growing at seven per cent with no power, with zero power? It’s a joke.”
According to O’Neil, the creation of the MINT acronym could also spur pressure for Nigeria to become a member of the G20, just like its other peers in the MINT category.
He also noted that with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product at $0.26 trillion as at 2012 and currently ranked 39, by 2050, if the right policies are put in place, the country could rank 13 with $4.91 trillion GDP.
The former Goldman Sachs official also maintained that if the MINT countries would be able to design appropriate policies, some of them would match the Chinese-style double-digit growth rates that occurred between 2003 and 2008.
He however pointed out that a factor that would help Nigeria attain its projection would be for African countries to stop fighting and trade with each other.
O’Neill added: “This might in fact be the basis for the MINT countries developing their own economic-political club just as the BRIC countries did – one of the biggest surprises of the whole BRIC thing for me. I can smell the possibility of a MINT club already.”
Speaking on the prospect of the Nigerian economy among the MINT nations, the Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “We know our time will come.”
Economically three of the MINT countries – Mexico, Indonesia and Nigeria – are commodity producers and only Turkey isn’t. This contrasts with the BRIC countries where two – Brazil and Russia – are commodity producers and the other two – China and India – are not.
In terms of wealth, Mexico and Turkey are at about the same level, earning annually about $10,000 (£6,100) per head. This compares with $3,500 (£2,100) per head in Indonesia and $1,500 (£900) per head in Nigeria, which is on a par with India. They are a bit behind Russia – $14,000 (£8,500) per head – and Brazil on $11,300 (£6,800), but still a bit ahead of China – $6,000 (£3,600).
“When expectations are low – as one might generally say about Nigeria for example (although not in recent years among specialist investors in Africa) – it is easier to be positively surprised.
“Well corruption is obviously one topic that all four would seem to share, and I had many interesting discussions about it in each country,” the economist added.
